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How crowded is SMH?
Not an opinion — a read of the evidence. We rank all 2,825 funds that must disclose their trades by how their disclosed buys performed, follow only the specialists, and place every name on the conviction curve: still early, middle innings, or late.
Early or late? Ten seconds.
Any stock, ETF or fund you own. Free, no account.
48% of the fund by weight sits in late-stage names
48% Crowded · 13% Early Conviction · 9% Consensus · 30% not covered
The crowded weight: NVDA 20.8% · TSM 9.6% · AVGO 6.6% · AMD 5.7% · INTC 4.1% …
48% of the fund by weight sits in late-stage names (Crowded or Fading). We read 70% of this fund by weight — the rest has no graded specialist conviction.
In our receipts, names flagged Crowded went a median -5.8% between prints (66% went lower · 29 receipts). The record, not a forecast.
Watch this fund — tell me when it crosses 50% crowded.
How the read works · The live record vs the S&P 500 · Every past call, timestamped
The evidence base updates this week.
The specialists — not the whales — are already positioned for what comes next. Stop finding out last.
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