How it works
The machine, explained.
Three nouns run this product. A Print: the evidence changed. A stage: where the trade sits on the Conviction Curve. A Receipt: the timestamped proof of what happened between Prints. Here's the whole mechanism.
And it isn't just stocks. Most of what you own, you own through funds — we read those too, holding by holding, including the target-date fund in your 401k.
The Conviction Curve
Every trade travels this curve.
Most people buy after Consensus. That's the definition of late. The evidence is legible long before. Fundprints tells you the stage, so you know where you stand.
On the curve right now3 Emerging · 7 Early Conviction · 19 Consensus · 19 Crowded · 24 Fading · live, as of 2026-07-31
How we define crowd arrival: options-market activity (our Quiet / Neutral / Hot tape state) plus the breadth of institutional participation, measured against the stock's own history: a stable, auditable definition, not a feeling.
The five stages
Where a stock sits tells you what the evidence is worth.
The first graded specialists show up in the filings. Thin evidence: the stock is on the radar, not yet a case.
Several proven specialists converging on the same stock, independently, while the options tape is still quiet. This is the head start, the stage Fundprints exists to catch.
Participation broadens and the tape picks up. The market is catching on. Holders are being paid; fresh entries have less edge.
The crowd has arrived: hot tape, stretched participation against the stock's own history. Not a prediction, a description of who's already in. Warnings fire here.
The evidence unwinds. Specialists trim, support fades. The record shows what tends to happen next, which is why the warnings matter as much as the finds.
How a Print fires
A Print is not a tip. It's a dated change in the evidence.
The evidence base recomputes
Every week, all 2,825 filers are re-graded, every position re-aged, and every stock re-placed on the Conviction Curve.
A threshold crosses
A stock changes stage, a graded specialist joins, or the options tape turns Hot. The change itself is the event, not an opinion about it.
The Print fires
Dated the moment the evidence changed, pushed to the feed, and to your alerts if it's a stock you watch. That date never moves.
What a Receipt proves
Every claim on this site has a date attached.
When a journey completes (say, a stock enters Early Conviction and later turns Crowded), the pair of Prints becomes a Receipt: the entry evidence, the exit evidence, the move between them, and what the S&P 500 did over the same window. Receipts are generated from the record as it stood, dated when it happened. The warnings get Receipts too. check the archive.
The evidence base updates this week.
The specialists — not the whales — are already positioned for what comes next. Stop finding out last.
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